All Bets are Off If Israel Attacks Iran

Posted on December 6, 2009

Old Jerusalem

For over 2,000 years Jerusalem  has been the focal point of first the Jews, then the Christians and then the Muslims. This holiday season more than at any other time we need to

Pray for the peace of Jerusalem:

“May those who love you be secure.

May there be peace within your walls

and security within your citadels.

The above has been taken from Psalm 122 and beautifully set to music as the coronation anthem by Parry. [see video below]

Many on the Israel – Iran conflict watch predict that shortly after the first of the year Israel’s patience will have run out and they will attack Iran with or without Obama’s blessing.

A brief overview of major military actions undertaken by Israel in the past without consulting with Washington include:

  • In June 1967, Israel initiated the Six-Day War without notice to Washington, despite President Johnson’s insistence that Israel maintain the status quo and consult with the U.S. before taking action
  • On June 7, 1981, Israeli fighter-bombers destroyed the Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak shortly before it was to be fueled to develop the capacity to make nuclear weapons-grade plutonium. Again, Washington was not informed in advance.

Most important, the above attack set a precedent in Israel.

A few days later, Prime Minister Menachem Begin told CBS News: “This attack will be a precedent for every future government in Israel. … Every future Israeli prime minister will act, in similar circumstances, in the same way.”

  • Begin’s prediction proved true on Sept. 6, 2007, when Israeli aircraft destroyed what was believed to be a North Korean-supplied plutonium reactor in Al Kibar, Syria. [Council on Foreign Relations]

Many, including the author of the above article, believe that Iran has crossed the Rubicon. It bypassed a September deadline to bargain away future development of nuclear sites.

Ahmadinejad is well aware of Persia’s glorious past and has mentioned it more than once in confronting the youthful US. The Persians were the primary strategists in putting together an alliance with Egypt that defeated the powerful Moguls in 1259 and in effect, saved Islam. This is their mindset. [East Meets West]

Even today, they are well aware of the limits of Israel and the US.

Ahmadinejad and the mullahs know full well that the west will never impose the only sanctions that could work (a complete boycott of Iranian oil and cessation of the export to Iran of all products) [The Guardian UK]

The tipping point for Israel has always been a perceived threat to the safety and well-being of the Jewish state. It is unlikely they will trust that they will have support from a dithering President of the United States.

Meanwhile, the Obama Administration has come up with a new Middle East policy:

The Obama administration‘s approach to two of the world’s most intractable and dangerous problems, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iran‘s nuclear programme, is to link them together in the search for a solution to both.

The new US strategy aims to use its Iran policy to gain leverage on Binyamin Netanyahu’s government.

Sanctions planned against Iran’s energy sector if Tehran does not compromise on uranium enrichment by the end of next month are not only aimed at pre-empting Israeli military action; they are also a bargaining chip offered in part exchange for a substantial freeze on Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

“The message is: Iran is an existential threat to Israel; settlements are not,” said one official close to the negotiations.

However, the strategy is fraught with risks. Coupling the two huge complex issues could end up complicating them further. Moves against Iran’s oil and gas industry could also end up destroying hard-won multilateral co-ordination, by alienating Russia and China, while failing to inflict much damage on the Iranian regime. Memories of Iraqi sanctions-busting are still fresh. [The Guardian UK]

The sad fact is that even if the US is not involved in an attack on Iran, Iran will attack US bases in the region.  They will also fire off a few rockets in the direction of Arab oil facilities.

This is a messy situation fast becoming an international quagmire. Jerusalem that sacred capital is now being fought over by nuclear armed states. “Pray for the peace of Jerusalem.”



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