Robert D. Kaplan is a visionary. Highly controversial but with a well-informed historical perspective, in a seminal article in the Atlantic Monthly (February, 1994) titled “The Coming Anarchy,” he wrote about survival in a post-cold war world. I never forgot it and, in point of fact, have moved that issue of the Atlantic with me ever since that date. Now I will revisit it with you at a time when change is accelerating and outcomes less certain.
Read the article here;
Read a review of the article here and here:
Read about Kaplan here:
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DarcsFalcon
November 12, 2011
I was just reading an article that said Ayn Rand pretty much nailed the overall events of today too, from back in the late 60s.
It’s always amusing to me – each generation thinks it’s on to something new, when it’s really the same old human nature/ideology in new clothes. We don’t seem to change much over the centuries! LOL
James Crawford
November 12, 2011
Even a heretic such as myself who questions Global Warming Theology and takes notice of the fact that the population bomb is fizzling can find much wisdom in this article. Thenation states of the Third World are purely arbitrary lines drawn on the maps of Africa and much of Asia by European politicians. The 9-11 attacks were very much a symptom of the tribalalism that Kaplan warned of as is the Arab Spring.
I was particularly intrigued Kaplan’s observation that Turkey controls the water for Iraq and Syria and even Israel. Less obvious is that given transnational cooperation, this water could also be diverted to arid portions of Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Similarly, transnational cooperation could allow diversion of the lower Nile River in Egypt to the Quatara depression in Libya. Along with bringing irrigation water to vast areas of dessert and generating massive amounts of electricity, a Quatara lake could transform the climate of the region. The Arab Spring which seems to be enabling the energence of a renewed Caliphate could enable this transnational cooperation. It remains to be seen if tribalism will allow this transnational cooperation. Even more alarming is the prospect of a transnational Caliphate that remains xenophobic and hostile using the wealth that such projects could create to fund aggression.
roblorinov
November 12, 2011
Interesting and prophetic SH. Those who understand the past, understand the present and the future. Turkey is once again a rising power in the Mid East and I suspect it’s a toss up between Iran or Turkey for the coming caliphate (and it is coming). Egypt’s military has backed off of democracy and elections, Tunisia just put the radical Muslims into power, and we’ve just handed Libya to al Qaeda. Next up is Syria I suspect. Very good read SH.
samhenry
November 12, 2011
Why thank you, RL. I am happy to have brought it your way. I have been very busy and missing my post here but I will return in fuller form in a week or two.