Who Do we Trust Now? True Cost of Government Health Care Suppressed in Two Administrations

Posted on April 23, 2010


Back in 2003, the Washington Post reported:

Richard S. Foster, Medicare’s chief actuary for nearly a decade, said administration officials threatened to fire him if he disclosed his belief in 2003 that the drug package would cost $500 billion to $600 billion. Lawmakers in both parties accused the administration of concealing important information that could have derailed passage of the bill.

Last night, in response to media inquiries, McClellan revised the numbers once more. The most significant change, he said, is that the new budget projections tally the cost of drug benefits for 10 years. Projections made in 2003 included the two transition years before the drug coverage is fully implemented in 2006.

Providing prescription coverage for more than 41 million seniors in 2014 and 2015 will cost more than $107 billion annually, he noted.

By 2005, The Post reported on the revised calculations that savings would be realized on the backs of Medicare recipients:

“…some seniors will be shifted from Medicaid to Medicare, resulting in about $190 billion in savings over the next decade. That is because states will be required to reimburse the federal government for some of those services, and the federal government will not be required to pay out as much in matching funds to states.The new budget projections also show that seniors will face higher bills each year. A 10-year chart prepared by the Medicare actuaries estimates the drug premium will rise from $35 a month next year to $68 in 2015. Annual deductibles will start at $250 in 2006 and rise to about $472 in 2015, and the maximum annual out-of-pocket expense would be $6,800 that year.

Fast forward to 2010 and amnesia had set in.  The above was not widely publicized during the Health Care Reform debate. Focus was on savings through Medicare cuts that will also increase costs for seniors.  Most important, once again CBO figures confirmed Democrats’ projections that the program would decrease the national deficit.

Re-enter Mr. Foster.

Republicans in March criticized Democrats for moving forward with a vote on the controversial health legislation before CMS finalized its projections. Foster informed lawmakers that his office needed time to assess the law, and was unable to complete its analysis by the time Congress voted on the bill. Congress is bound by numbers released by CBO, which released its cost estimates before the final House and Senate votes. [The Hill]

When Foster’s report on the cost of the new Health Care Reform was finally released this week, the headlines were:

New healthcare reform law could lead to higher prices, employers dropping coverage [The Hill]

A new government report from Rick Foster, the chief actuary of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), finds that President Barack Obama’s new healthcare reform law would cost $828 billion over the next decade while saving $577 billion.

And the end result of the above would be not only increased government cost but see employers dropping premium coverage for employees leaving them no choice but the government programs.

In Foster’s current  report on the cost of the Health Care Reform legislation, the only omission was a consideration of changes in the tax code that have been enacted but again, hit and run legislation misses even the supporting information.

Foster’s estimate of the law’s impact on Medicare and Medicaid may be found here . The financial impact of the legislation may be found here.

Two administrations are now responsible for misrepresenting the true cost of government health care to Americans.  “What’s Past is Prologue” belongs to Republicans and Democrats not as a phrase attached to the National Archives. Time for a new political party.

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